Wall Street Expects Stronger Q4 for Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) –Earnings on January 31
Wednesday, January 26, 2011 10:45 AM

Largest publicly-traded corporation in the world by market cap and revenue, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) will release its fourth quarter results on January 31, 2011. In the last three quarters of FY 2010, Exxon Mobil's reported EPS exceeded analysts' consensus estimates for quarters ended June 2010 and September 2010, by margins of 9.60 percent and3.60 percent, respectively. For quarter ended March 2010, the reported EPS by the company missed analysts' estimates by margin of 5.70 percent.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (Exxon Mobil) is a manufacturer and marketer of commodity petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene and polypropylene plastics and a range of specialty products. It also has interests in electric power generation facilities. The company has several divisions and hundreds of affiliates with names that include ExxonMobil, Exxon, Esso or Mobil. Divisions and affiliated companies of ExxonMobil operate or market products in the United States and other countries of the world.

Q3 FY 2010 earnings beat analysts' consensus estimates

For the third quarter of FY 2010, Exxon reported net income of $7.35 billion, up 55 percent compared to net income of $4.73 billion in the third quarter of FY 2009. The earnings per share of the company for the third quarter were $1.44 per share, up 47 percent from $0.98 per share in the third quarter of FY 2009. Cash flow from operations in the third quarter FY 2010 was $13.9 billion, including asset sales of $0.80 billion. The company repurchased 54 million shares of its common stock at a gross cost of $3.3 billion during the period, and paid dividends on its common stock of $0.44 per share, an increase of 5 percent compared to the third quarter of FY 2009.

Exxon Mobil is the biggest of the super majors in the oil & gas industry. The company competes with Bp Plc (NYSE: BP), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX). In the last one year, BP has reported a loss in earnings of -$1.60 per share, on revenues of $288.80 billion. Chevron reported earnings of $8.37 per share, on revenues of $185.82 billion. On the other hand, Exxon Mobil reported earnings of $5.65 per share, on revenues of $329.81 billion.

Exxon Mobil has a P/E ratio of 13.98, which is slightly higher than industry's average P/E of 13.62. The P/S ratio of the company is at 1.19, lower than the industry's P/S of 1.22. The quarterly revenue growth of the company is at 16.10, compared to whole industry's quarterly revenue growth of 8.40 percent. The company's price earnings ratio to growth is at 1.09 years, which is very good for investors, considering industry's PEG of 1.96 years.

Analysts' expects Q4 earnings to be stronger sequentially

For the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2010, analysts' EPS estimates range from a low of $1.36 to a high of $1.72 per share, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.58 or $1.27 earned in the year ago quarter. Analysts' revenue estimates for the fourth quarter range from a low of $85.27 billion to a high of $112.29 billion, compared to a consensus estimate of $97.89 billion or $89.84 billion reported in the same quarter a year ago. For the quarter ended December 31, 2010, the consensus EPS forecast has been downgraded to the current estimate of $1.58 per share, from $1.59 per share estimated 7 days ago, which was upgraded from $1.54 per share estimated 30 days ago.

For FY 2009, XOM distributed $26 billion to shareholders as dividends and share repurchases in 2009. The company paid $213 billion in dividends plus share repurchases since the beginning of 2000. Dividend payments per share increased for the 27th consecutive year. On October 27, 2010, the board of directors of Exxon Mobil Corporation declared a cash dividend of 44 cents per share on the common stock. In the last 52 weeks, Exxon's stock price has been trading in the range of $55.94 and $79.10. In the last one year, the company's stock has gained 23 percent to settle at $78.98 on January 21, 2011. Over the next five years, Exxon's earnings are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 12.07 percent. Based on the EPS estimates and key statistical data of the company, I see a one year target price of $81.



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