America's Car-Mart, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRMT) – Q2 2011 Earnings Preview
Tuesday, November 09, 2010 10:41 AM

America's Car-Mart, Inc., the largest publicly held automotive retailer in the United States focused exclusively on the Buy Here/Pay Here segment of the used car market, is scheduled to report Q2-2011 results on Friday, November 19, 2010. In the last four quarters ending July 2010, the company's reported EPS exceeded analysts' consensus estimates by margins in the range of 3.7% and 25%.

America's Car-Mart, Inc. is an automotive retailer in the United States focused exclusively on the Buy Here/Pay Here segment of the used car market. The Company's operations are principally conducted through its two operating subsidiaries, America's Car-Mart, Inc. (Car-Mart of Arkansas) and Colonial Auto Finance, Inc. (Colonial). The Company primarily sells older model used vehicles and provides financing for substantially all of its customers. As of April 30, 2010, the Company operated 97 dealerships located primarily in small cities throughout the South-Central United States.

The company reported net income of $8.0 million in Q1-2011 ($.70 per diluted share) vs. $7.0 million ($.60 per diluted share) for prior year quarter (17% increase in diluted earnings per share). First quarter revenue increase of 9.2% to $91.5 million from $83.8 million was driven by same store revenue growth of 6.4%. Retail unit sales increased by 3.7% to 8,481 from 8,182 for the prior year quarter. The company repurchased 317,686 shares of its common stock during the first quarter representing 2.8% of the outstanding shares.

Analysts' estimates for the second quarter of 2011 range from a low of $0.62 to a high of $0.7, compared to a consensus estimate of $0.65 or year ago eps of $0.53. Analysts' revenue estimates for the second quarter 2011 range from a low of $88.15 million to a high of $96.14 million, compared to a consensus estimate of $92.76 million or reported revenue of $82.56 million in the same quarter a year ago. For the second quarter, the consensus EPS forecast has increased over the past week from $0.640 to $0.650 (1.56%) and increased over the past month from $0.640 to $0.650 (1.56%). Of the 5 analysts making quarterly forecasts, 1 raised and none lowered their forecast.

I believe, upward revision in analysts' consensus estimates is attributable to the company's plans to add 6 to 8 new locations during the remainder of this fiscal year, and the likely opening of new dealerships at an approximate rate of 10% for the next several years.

The stock closed Monday at $29.82, compared to 52 week range of $20.4 and $29.93. YTD, the closing share price is up by $3.49 or 13.25%. I forecast 2011 earnings per share at $1.2, and see 2012's at $1.55. Based on these estimates, I set a target price of $32. Target price factors in stock repurchase program.



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ja teremtipTTG Investments GE$0.28
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