DB Analysts Expect Broad based Strength to Drive Automobile SAAR to 13 Million
Thursday, September 22, 2021 3:35 PM

Analysts at Deutsche Bank states that they expect the U.S. seasonally adjusted annual rate of 13 million for the month of September 2011. They add that the uptick in the September SAAR is being driven by broad based strength and not just a Japanese recovery.


DB analysts state that the increase appears to be driven by stronger retail sales, as they estimated fleet at only 19 percent of the market this month. They add that despite fears of an impending price war the pricing environment appears to be benign. They state that incentives have declined marginally through the first 10 days of the month and in addition, domestic OEMs should benefit as industry mix of large pickup trucks appears to be very strong at 13.1 percent of retail sales, versus a 9.2 percent bottom in April 2011.  They state that however stronger truck sales may be partly driven by higher incentive levels, including low cost financing. They add that the improved sales should help General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) in bringing down their inventory levels. They state that Japanese production continues to recover and they expect inventories to again end the month higher than they started. They add that year-over-year sales for Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and General Motors appear to be up 8.5 percent and  21 percent,  respectively, with market shares at 16.5 percent and 20.1 percent. 


On a year-to-date basis, General Motors has a share performance of -38.66 percent, and as compared to Standard & Poor’s 500, it has an YTD share performance of -36.56 percent. Ford Motor has an YTD share performance of -36.75 percent, and has an YTD share performance of -34.58 percent.


Shares of General Motors slipped 4.28 percent or 91 cents to trade at $20.37. Shares of Ford Motor lost 2.51 percent or 26 cents to trade at $9.72.