Jubilation as oil price heads higher

Crude Oil Dips After Inventories Data

Given oil's implied volatility of 24.1%, USA crude oil futures could close between $50.88 and $54.40 per barrel in the next seven days with a probability of about 68%. NY time on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Crude prices had pulled back Wednesday following the release of US inventory data, showing a 856,000-barrel rise in crude stockpiles in the week ended October 20.

Crude oil supplies from northern Iraq have fallen after the central government took control of oil fields in disputed territories from Kurdish forces.

OPEC and Russian Federation are expected to maintains their output cut. OPEC is said to be working on an exit strategy in an effort to reassure investors that the group will manage a controlled release of supplies to avoid a new glut when the curbs eventually expire.

Brent, the global benchmark, recently traded up 71 cents, or 1.2%, at $60.01 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

Similarly, the November 180-cst discount to Brent crude fell to $4.58 a barrel on Friday, also its widest discount since October 6. West Texas Intermediate, the USA benchmark for the price of oil, was more or less unchanged at $52.21 per barrel.

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But higher USA supply has been balanced by worries over crude exports from the Middle East.

While OPEC is cutting back to alleviate price pressures, USA fracking companies could jump to capitalize on the windfall as crude oil prices jump back above $50 per barrel - according to some estimates, shale oil producers can get by with oil at just over $50 per barrel due to advancements in technology and drilling techniques that have helped cut down costs. "Initially, it was thought to be related to the hurricane, but to me it's becoming a little more structural".

The kingdom has been a larger supplier to the US for most of the past quarter century, data from the Energy Information Administration show.

Daily exports of American crude, diesel and other petroleum products climbed to a record 7.66 million barrels last week, signaling stronger demand, the Energy Information Administration said in a report Wednesday.

"The exports are ripping higher", Loewen said. A forecast from the EIA, meanwhile, said expectations for WTI are what drive its forecast for crude oil production. Iraq sent more than 1 MMbopd last week to the US, about 500,000 bpd more than the kingdom.

Global inventories remain above the five-year average with U.S. crude adding to existing stockpiles.

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